Expedition Cruising Update & Outlook

By Anne Kalosh.

Expedition cruising is poised for incredible growth.

Twenty-seven new builds and four repurposed ships are scheduled to debut from 2021-23 for 18 operators.

They’ll sail for new brands, established lines branching into the sector, and expedition stalwarts. The Swan Hellenic brand is being revived, and Atlas Ocean Voyages was created as the North American offshoot of Portugal’s Mystic Cruises. Established lines that are plunging into expedition cruising with dedicated new builds include Crystal, Seabourn, Victory Cruise Lines and Viking.

National Geographic Resolution expedition ship in the yard

National Geographic Resolution, right, is being completed at the Ulstein Shipyard in Norway. At left is 2020 sister ship National Geographic Endurance. * Photo: Lindblad Expeditions

Also adding new ships are venerable expedition cruising operators like Albatros, Aurora Expeditions, Coral Expeditions, Hapag-Lloyd Cruises, Lindblad Expeditions, Oceanwide Expeditions, Ponant, Quark Expeditions, Scenic and Vantage Travel.

Two other expedition veterans, Hurtigruten and Silversea, are repurposing existing vessels for expedition service.

140 Percent Passenger Capacity Growth

It’s a lot of ships, but they’re small — the total addition over three years is just 7,300 passenger beds. Still, that’s 140 percent more passenger capacity in this niche sector.

In 2021 alone, 14 new ships and four repurposed vessels are to join the expedition ranks.

Yet what a time to be adding berths, when most destinations remain off-limits.

At Seatrade Cruise Virtual’s recent Expedition Cruising event, company leaders gave their current assessment of expedition destinations. Roberto Martinoli, president and CEO of Silversea Cruises, remarked there’s so much uncertainty that lines are at “version 28 of their return-to-service” plans.

Silversea CEO Roberto Martinoli talks about Expedition Cruising

“Bookings for 2022 and 2023 are looking really good. People can’t wait to be back out on the water,” Silversea CEO Roberto Martinoli said. * Photo: Anne Kalosh

Vaccination Key To Restart

“The most important thing is that vaccines now seem to be the solution,” Martinoli said, however destinations need to clarify their health protocols in a vaccinated environment since this will impact restarts and operations.

Since expedition cruisers are typically older, they’re likely to be among the first vaccinated, but it’s a challenge for the crew who are younger, come from many countries and typically don’t have the type of pre-existing conditions that would give them priority. After all, they have to be in good general health to obtain a seaman’s certificate.

That said, Martinoli noted it’s easier to control the crew’s health because at this time they stay on the ships and generally aren’t allowed ashore due to local regulations.

Pro & Con

An advantage of expedition cruising is going to places where they can avoid contact with human populations so they don’t run the risk of spreading the virus.

The challenge, Martinoli pointed out, is “God forbid” there’s a medical emergency and there’s no shoreside infrastructure to cope with that. “Governments want us to have emergency plans in place and we are doing the best we can,” he said.

Sven Lindblad, CEO Lindblad Expeditions, outlined the three things needed to resume: “Medical solutions, a welcome mat — the authorities saying OK — and guests agreeing to your plan.

“There’s a lot of optimism with the vaccines and it’s one advantage for us with smaller ships,” he added.

Lindblad wouldn’t be surprised to see vaccination mandates for crew and guests. (In the expedition sector, Victory Cruise Lines has come out with that, while Crystal Expedition Cruises will require it only of passengers initially and Swan Hellenic, of the crew.)

Svan Lindblad talks about expedition cruising

Svan Lindblad advocates for “imaginative ways” to call at destinations this year, perhaps by avoiding populated areas. * Photo: Lindblad Expeditions

Will There Be Arctic Cruising In 2021?

The Seatrade speakers painted dim prospects for an Arctic cruise season this year.

Typically the northern spring would herald the first cruises to places like Svalbard, however this Norwegian archipelago is currently off-limits, and the Norwegian mainland itself is also closed to cruising. That might change later in the season, depending on vaccination speed and herd immunity, according to Asta Lassesen, CEO, Hurtigruten Expeditions.

Popular Arctic destination Svalbard is currently closed to cruise ships. * Photo: Stefan Dall for Hurtigruten

An important issue that must be addressed is the limited medical capacity in Svalbard. Shoreside arrangements may be needed in the event of an outbreak on board. And “We as operators have a big responsibility to ensure we are not exposing these small communities to the virus,” Lassesen said.

Asta Lassesen, CEO, Hurtigruten Expeditions. * Photo: Hurtigruten

The Russian Arctic is “a big question mark” and the Canadian Arctic is out of the question, Lindblad noted, while Iceland cruises are “possible,” and he hopes Greenland might consider allowing ships even if they can’t visit populated areas.

“I would gladly pay the Greenland government a substantial entrance fee to come into the country without visiting communities,’ Lindblad said. “I think there are opportunities to come up with imaginative ways to compensate for this circumstance we’re living in.”

Iceland may welcome expedition cruise ships. Here, Godafoss Waterfalls. * Photo: Silversea Expeditions

Non-Arctic Europe

Hervé Bellaiche, chief sales, marketing and communications officer, Ponant, expects ships will be able to sail this summer around France, in Greece (currently closed but perhaps opening mid-May), Italy, Croatia and Spain, and possibly the U.K. (which initially may allow domestic cruises starting May 17; no word yet on foreign-flag ships).

Ponant’s North Pole cruises on the new icebreaker Le Commandant-Charcot are fully booked, according to Hervé Bellaïche. * Photo: Ponant

The Americas

Besides closing its Arctic destinations to all cruise visits until the end of February 2022, elsewhere, Canada is allowing only ships carrying up to 100 people (passengers and crew) but most expedition vessels have greater capacity than this.

Because Canada is closed, that means most ships won’t be able to sail in Alaska and the Great Lakes, since United States’ cabotage regulations forbid non-U.S.-flag vessels to sail domestically unless they make a call at a foreign port. When it comes to Alaska and the Great Lakes, Canadian ports are needed.

U.S.-flag ships, like some of those operated by Lindblad Expeditions, UnCruise Adventures and others, can sail a pure Alaska itinerary without a Canada stop.

“Alaska is totally viable for us … and I believe Alaska will be very strong for us,” Lindblad said.

Lindblad Expeditions’ U.S.-flag ships are readying to explore Alaska this summer. * Photo: Ralph Lee Hopkin for Lindblad Expeditions

Further down the Pacific Coast, Lindblad Expeditions has “no firm plans” for Mexico’s Baja California or Central America in the near future, though the company could provide a “fantastic experience” in both places even without visiting communities, Sven Lindblad said. He hopes both regions will be feasible later in the year.

The Galápagos theoretically could provide a safe “bubble” for operations, in Martinoli’s view. Silversea’s brand-new Silver Origin is standing by, “and we would like to start immediately” but challenges like shoreside medical capacity need to be addressed.

Built specifically for the Galápagos, the brand-new Silver Origin is standing by, waiting to welcome passengers. Here, steps lead up from the ship’s marina. * Photo: Silversea Expeditions

Lindblad Expeditions aims to start there in June. Even sooner, UnCruise Adventures plans its first Galápagos program, after a year away, on April 3, with a trip aboard the Metropolitan Touring ship La Pinta.

Lindblad Expeditions expects to sail in the Galápagos this year. * Photo: Ralph Lee Hopkins for Lindblad Expeditions

Australia/New Zealand/South Pacific

Ponant, recently disappointed by the short-notice inability to operate New Zealand cruises due to a crew visa issue, is more hopeful about Australia opening for small ships, Bellaiche said, since domestic operations are underway there.

French Polynesia isn’t allowing cruises for now.

Antarctica

There was no 2020/21 Antarctica cruising. As for the 2021/22 period, at this point, operators expect Antarctica cruises to start in the fourth quarter as scheduled, Martinoli said, since vaccines should be widely distributed by then. This hopefully makes South American gateways amenable to expedition ship turnarounds.

Antarctica cruises are expected to operate in the 2021:22 season, starting in October. Here, Silver Explorer. * Photo: Silversea Expeditions

Robust Demand

So, for now, few expedition cruises are likely in the coming months. Whenever things change, lines said plenty of travelers are raring to go.

“Bookings for 2022 and 2023 are looking really good. People can’t wait to be back out on the water,” Martinoli said. “My sincere hope is that when governments lift restrictions, there will be enough demand to fill ships with very short booking windows. And we are ready for that.”

“There’s a hunger for what we do,” according to Lindblad, explaining that a growing number of people want to experience nature, and concern about natural areas vanishing creates a sense of urgency.

He predicted “the pandemic will have only increased the interest in this sector.”

Ponant operated about 65 cruises in 2020, though only at 30 percent occupancy. Still, Bellaiche said guest satisfaction scores were much higher than usual “even if people had to wear masks, distance and take PCR tests, sometimes multiple times during the cruise.”

Bellaiche cited “tremendous demand,” even now, with most customers keeping their money with the company instead of seeking refunds when cruises are canceled.

Meeting The Zeitgeist

According to Edwina Lonsdale, managing director of London-based Mundy Cruising and Mundy Adventures, expedition cruising “meets the zeitgeist” because it addresses what will drive consumers post-pandemic — being away from crowds, a commitment to preserving the planet, cultures and folklore; and changed priorities, moving away from materialism and consumption in favor of experiences.

Edwina Lonsdale, managing director of London-based Mundy Cruising and Mundy Adventures. * Photo: Mundy Cruising

“Everyone who goes always comes back and says that was way better than we expected. So I think there’s an unlimited market,” said Geoffrey Kent, founder and co-chairman, Abercrombie & Kent Group of Companies.

And the market is changing, broadening. “My clients are now 45 to 65 and multigenerational,” Kent said.

“As an industry we are driving that change,” Hurtigruten’s Lassesen added. A lot of people are interested in the key elements — active travel, nature, wildlife, cultural interaction and sustainability — and this means lines can tap into a wide market.

Getting Away From The Herd

With all the supply growth, Sven Lindblad’s worried about ships scrambling for Antarctica’s limited landing sites and warned that in the future, just one landing per day may be allowed.

In building its latest ships to a high Polar Class 5, Lindblad Expeditions can “get away from the herd,” he explained, sailing to places “earlier, later and deeper … With PC5, you can go further and open territory.”

Ponant’s Polar Class 2 Le Commandant-Charcot will be able to break ice up to three meters thick and can go “almost anywhere,” Bellaiche said. The new ship’s North Pole cruises are fully booked. Travelers will sail aboard a one-of-kind, LNG-powered, hybrid electric vessel.

Biggest Challenge

As they grow, the lines’ biggest challenge, as Martinoli sees it, is branching out beyond the Arctic and Antarctica to develop nontraditional destinations.

“Saudi Arabia’s definitely going to be one,” according to A&K’s Kent, citing allures like spectacular Red Sea diving on one of the world’s largest and healthiest coral reefs. Other places he sees with potential: Japan, Greece, the Baltic and Australia’s Kimberley.

Lassesen said Hurtigruten is looking at opportunities in the Mediterranean.

Many regions hope to lure expedition ships. During a Seatrade Cruise Virtual “lightning pitch” competition to expedition cruise itinerary planners, presentations included Saudi Arabia, the Baltic, The Hague, Orkney Islands, Cowes (Isle of Wight), Tahiti, the Great Lakes, the St. Lawrence and the Caribbean.

Yes, the Caribbean.

“We don’t offer polar bears or fantastic icebergs but the Caribbean has a storied past with diverse cultural history imprinted by French, Dutch, English and Spanish colonial trade networks overlaid by slavery and our indigenous people,” said Julie-Anne Burrowes, cruise advisor, Caribbean Village.

The Caribbean is the most mainstream, big-ship cruise destination, but Burrowes argued there are ample expedition assets. “The heart of expedition cruising is providing educational and experiential activities focused on geography, culture, history and anthropology,” she said. “The Caribbean presents a wonderful opportunity, especially considering the richness and diversity of itineraries.”

Burrowes pointed to examples like Dominica’s vast rain forest and sperm whale population, Jamaica’s Blue Mountains with their biodiversity and maroon history, the sunken pirate city of Port Royal and St. Kitts’ enormous Brimstone Hill Fortress, a UNESCO World Heritage Site.